Seasoned trader Peter Brandt is warning that Bitcoin (BTC) has historically witnessed a massive meltdown after failing to print new record highs for a certain amount of time.
The legendary trader tells his 742,500 followers on the social media platform X that BTC is at risk of collapsing after failing to spark sustained rallies for about eight months.
“Hey Bitcoiners, are you familiar with the concept of ‘market analogs?’
Here is something to think about.
It has been 30 weeks since BTC made an ATH (all-time high).
Whenever [BTC] has not made a decisive new ATH within this time length, a 75%+ decline has occurred.”
Brandt says Bitcoin’s price doldrums remind him of an old adage about market weakness.
“I am an old guy and there is an old saying:
‘Markets that don’t go up usually can’t go up.'”
While Brandt is outlining a very bearish scenario for Bitcoin, he highlights that he is only sharing an observation and not a market prediction.
“Just making an observation. Bitcoin is the largest single tradeable asset in my net worth. He who cannot look both ways usually ends up in a car accident.”
Last week, he unveiled a bullish scenario for Bitcoin, noting that BTC tends to print massive gains in the second half of a halving cycle.
“Here is the macro picture of Bitcoin BTC.
Observations:
-Huge gains come in post-half of halving cycles
-Period since Mar 2024 appears as insignificant, brief pause in an ongoing trend
-My target is $135,000 in Aug/Sep 2025
-Close below $48,000 negates my chart analysis.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $62,741.
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