Closely followed analyst Benjamin Cowen says that Cardano (ADA) is most likely in for one additional drop against Bitcoin (ADA/BTC) before 2024 comes to a close.
Cowen tells his 889,100 followers on the social media platform X that historically, ADA has oscillated against BTC roughly between 400 and 4,000 satoshis (sats), while making final declines at the end of the halving year.
[adinserter block="1"]Cowen points out that coinciding with the four-year ADA/BTC pattern is the fact that monetary policy is still relatively restrictive and that the US dollar is in the middle of a rally – two typically bearish conditions for risk assets like crypto.
“I think ADA/BTC will get one more drop before EOY (end of year) and then go up in 2025.
Showing some stats for comparison…
Nov 2020 low: 583 sats
Nov 2020 high: 995 sats
Dec 2020 low: 503 sats
Nov 2024 low: 470 sats
Nov 2024 high: 903 sats (so far)
Dec 2024 low: ???
If QT (quantitative tightening) were over I would be more inclined to say it does not have to drop again (since BTC dominance already hit 60% and ADA/BTC went to 470 sats (and my multi-year target was 400 sats).
But with QT continuing and DXY (US dollar index) rallying, I don’t think we can dismiss another drop by ADA/BTC before EOY.“
Cowen has the same general view on altcoins at large. He shares a chart that looks at the TOTAL3-USDT chart, which measures the total market cap of crypto excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and stablecoins.
The analyst notes that TOTAL3-USDT versus Bitcoin is struggling to breach a level reached in late 2020, suggesting that altcoins could still get much weaker.
“Imagine now being able to say that BTC dominance (BTC.D) dropped to 60%.
I am open-minded to the top for dominance being in, but my main concern for that view is that ALT/BTC pairs are still well off their historic lows.
Additionally, QT continues, DXY and yields are going up, and BTC.D historically goes up in December of halving years.”
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