Analyst Benjamin Cowen is leaning bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) while warning that one factor could delay the flagship crypto asset from reaching $100,000 before the end of this year.
In an appearance on The David Lin Report, Cowen says that Bitcoin is primed to hit a six-figure price based on historical precedent.
“If you go look at like year-to-date return on investment (ROI)… and you average out all the prior halving years, we’re actually tracking it pretty closely. So if you average out 2012, 2016 and 2020 and then you overlay 2024, right now Bitcoin is at its average of prior halving years – so it’s basically 2x from the yearly open… the average of the other prior three halving years was also 2x from the yearly open.
You can see that the average from the yearly open by the end of the halving year for those was closer to 3x. So if Bitcoin can continue to follow the cyclical view, then it should be able to [reach $100,000].”
Cowen, however, says that a higher-than-expected unemployment rate could delay Bitcoin’s ascent to a six-figure price.
“I think the only thing that would prevent it from doing so would be labor market results that we’re going to get in two weeks.
So my base case is if the unemployment rate comes in low, let’s say it comes in at 4%, 4.1% maybe even 4.2%, would not be so bad. That would favor the cyclical view prevailing.
If it comes in really hot, for whatever reason, let’s say it comes in at 4.3% or 4.4%, then we might have to wait until 2025 for $100,000. That’s the way I see it right now.”
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