Market intelligence firm S&P Global predicts banks will incur nearly $1 trillion in credit losses this year despite an improving macroeconomic backdrop.
In its Global Credit Outlook 2025 report, the firm says global credit conditions appear to remain supportive in 2025 as major economies successfully engineer soft landings and central banks pivot to looser monetary policies.
While S&P Global says that about eight out of 10 banking groups under its watch have stable ratings outlooks, it expects banks worldwide to witness more losses from delinquent and bad debt this year.
“We forecast global credit losses will increase about 7%, to $850 billion, in 2025 – within our base case at current rating levels for most banks.”
The market insights firm says the figure could be higher if global credit conditions succumb to one or more potential headwinds this year.
“All told, any improvement in global credit conditions will be along a narrow path strewn with overlapping risks. Slowing economic activity, the prospect of resurgent inflation, and political polarization could lead to sustained bouts of market volatility.”
S&P Global also says uncertainty prevails in the US, and global credit conditions could deteriorate amid potential changes in key policies including higher tariffs.
The firm notes that the proposed economic plans of President-elect Donald Trump could trigger the resurgence of inflation, force the Fed to abandon its rate-cutting cycle and threaten credit quality.
“As the US economy settles into a soft landing, credit conditions for borrowers in North America look set to remain fairly favorable. However, amid the US political transition, the prospect that materially higher tariffs will reignite inflation and force the Federal Reserve to halt – or even reverse – its cycle of monetary-policy easing poses a significant risk.”
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