Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone is warning that gold’s strong 2024 performance may be a bearish signal for Bitcoin (BTC) and other risk assets.
McGlone says that gold has been outperforming the markets, suggesting that investors are moving their wealth into the precious metal as the preferred safe haven asset amid concerns of worsening macroeconomic conditions.
[adinserter block="1"]“‘Number must go up’ risks: Bitcoin and beta’s problem versus gold: it may not be a good sign for risk assets that despite substantial competition from Bitcoin, gold beat the record-setting stock market in 2024. Is the metal getting too hot or telling us something? My bias is the latter, especially due to [US President Donald] Trump administration uncertainty and promotion, and the risks of highly speculative digital assets.”
McGlone also believes whether Bitcoin can hold $100,000 as support may be the deciding factor in whether the flagship crypto asset will remain in an uptrend.
“Bitcoin may need to stay above $100,000, or else. In similar upward trajectories from 2022 nadirs, gold and Bitcoin could be running into resistance thresholds, and what might matter most is the crypto versus $100,000. If Bitcoin backs down, it would suggest similar for the stock market, with implications for deflation, lower bond yields and tailwinds for gold.”
Lastly, McGlone notes how the value of the US stock market capitalization and Bitcoin versus the US’s gross domestic product (GDP) is much higher than when Trump first took office in 2017, indicating market peaks may be near.
“Selling when they’re yelling `risk’: the juxtaposition of elevated US equities and Bitcoin versus crude oil at the start of 2025 versus 2017 may emphasize risks of excess enthusiasm. When President Trump first took office eight years ago, US stock market capitalization to GDP was closer to 1.2x, and the crypto was at about $1,000. Fast forward to 2025 and stocks are about 2.2x GDP, and Bitcoin has risen 100x to $100,000.”
Bitcoin is trading for $106,274 at time of writing.
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