An analyst who nailed Bitcoin’s pre-halving correction last year is updating his outlook for when BTC may peak in the current cycle.
The analyst pseudonymously known as Rekt Capital tells his 105,000 YouTube subscribers that based on historic precedence, Bitcoin may peak in the second half of 2025.
The analyst looks at how long it took Bitcoin to hit its peak in previous cycles, from the time BTC broke out of prior all-time highs to the moment it printed new market cycle highs. He says the range varies from as low as 250 days to as high as 329 days.
“If history repeats, and we see a 250-day period from breaking old all-time highs to rallying to new all-time highs, that would mean that we could get a mid-July 2025 bull market peak.
However, if we see things go the other way, and we see an extended period – just like in 2021 where we were rallying for 329 days beyond old all-time highs before we finally peaked in the bull market top – then 329 days would get us to late September 2025.”
The analyst notes that a late September Bitcoin peak would be about 550 days from its April 2024 halving, when miners’ rewards are cut in half. According to Rekt Capital, a September bull market crescendo is in line with previous cycles.
“A 550-day bull market top after the halving, that would get us into September or October 2025, so this is very much in alignment, while still appreciating and acknowledging the fact that we see varying degrees of acceleration beyond breaking into price discovery. We see these variations across cycles, and they give us this range. And what’s interesting is that the accelerated cycle thesis means mid-July, and the extended-cycle thesis, so to speak, still leaves us with a traditional halving cycle peaking in late September or October 2025.”
Bitcoin is trading for $102,439 at time of writing, down 2.7% in the last 24 hours.
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