Ethereum (ETH) rival Solana (SOL) could skyrocket to $520 by the end of 2025, according to analysts at the asset management firm VanEck.
With SOL trading at $191.43 at time of writing, that would represent an increase of more than 171%.
VanEck crypto researchers Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush base their prediction on Solana’s projected year-end market share within the smart contract platform (SCP) market.
The researchers say their market predictions are also tied M2 money supply growth, which has displayed a correlation to the crypto market cap.
M2 measures peoples’ cash, checking accounts and other types of deposits that are easily convertible to cash.
Explain Sigel and Bush,
“We project M2 to reach $22.3 trillion by the end of 2025, maintaining its 3.2% annualized growth rate since its last trough in October 2023. Using regression analysis, we estimate total SCP market capitalization will grow 43% to $1.1 trillion by year-end 2025 (vs. $770 billion today), surpassing its 2021 peak of $989 billion. Historical data shows a strong correlation between M2 and SCP market cap, with a 12-month moving average R² of 0.36 and a t-statistic of 5.7 (p < 0.0001).
Currently, Solana holds 15% of SCP market cap, but we forecast its share to rise to 22% by EOY 2025. This projection is supported by Solana’s developer dominance, increasing market share in DEX volumes, revenues, and active users. Using an autoregressive (AR) forecast model, we estimate Solana’s market cap will reach ~$250 billion, implying a SOL price of $520 based on ~486 million floating tokens.”
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