The chief executive of a prominent analytics firm is suddenly turning bearish on Bitcoin, saying BTC has hit a major cycle top.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju tells his 417,200 followers on the social media platform X that on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin will not print new highs for at least half a year.
The analytics firm executive says Bitcoin’s profit and loss (PnL) Index Cyclical Signals, an analytical tool that aggregates several on-chain metrics to identify cycle tops and bottoms, just flashed a signal that potentially marks the end of BTC’s bull market.
“Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting six to 12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”
He also says that Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average is starting to roll over, another signal that Bitcoin may be ready to enter bear territory.
“Every on-chain metric signals a bear market. With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices…
This alert applies PCA (Principal Component Analysis) to on-chain indicators like MVRV (market value to realized value), SOPR (spent output profit ratio) and NUPL (net unrealized profit/loss) to compute a 365-day moving average. This signal identifies inflection points where the trend of the one-year moving average changes…
I double-checked the data – it’s accurate.”
MVRV is a metric designed to determine whether a crypto is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its current price (market cap) to the average price at which all coins were last moved (realized cap). SOPR is a metric that tracks whether holders of a coin are unloading at a profit or loss to pinpoint price reversal areas.
Meanwhile, NUPL is a signal used to assess the overall profit or loss status of a coin’s investors to peer into general market sentiment.
According to Ki Young Ju, the on-chain signals suggest that Bitcoin is “entering a bear market.”
“Realized cap-based indicators show a lack of new liquidity. Massive volume around 100,000 failed to push the price higher, and ETF (exchange-traded fund) inflows have been negative for three consecutive weeks.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $83,157.
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