BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is warning that Bitcoin (BTC) is looking at a wall of worry this month amid US market uncertainty.
In a new interview on the Crypto Banter YouTube channel, Hayes says that US President Donald Trump’s announced tariffs on April 2nd could have enduring impacts on markets this month, after triggering a massive stock sell-off.
“April is going to be a tough month. We have this tariff digestion. The market still believes that Bitcoin is a one-to-one proxy for the Nasdaq. And people are starting to sour on US Big Tech. So that’s coming off.
And so people think, Okay, well, Nasdaq goes down, therefore Bitcoin goes down. I think Bitcoin is going to perform more like gold, but it’s going to take a while for the market to sort of ditch this correlation between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin.”
He also says that wild price swings can occur around April 15th, tax day in the United States, since some investors sell assets to help pay their tax bills.
“You have taxes being paid by persons in the United States coming up on April 15th. That’s a liquidity negative event, because people have to sell things to pay their taxes.”
Hayes says another factor that may impact Bitcoin this month is the Treasury’s monetary policy, which may affect the money supply in the markets. Bitcoin tends to rally if market liquidity increases based on historical precedent.
“It’s unclear whether or not the Treasury is going to refill their checking account…
Once that debt ceiling is resolved, and it will be resolved, then the question is, does the Treasury say, ‘Okay, I need to issue a bunch more bonds, suck liquidity out of the system, and raise my balance back up to say, $700 or $800 billion.’ We don’t know. We’ll find out in early May when the quarterly refunding announcement comes out from the Treasury about what their target is for their cash balances.”
Lastly, Hayes says the flagship crypto asset may start rallying again if Bitcoin can hold $76,500 as support this month amid all the volatility.
“April is going to be a lot of uncertainty. There’s max tariff hysteria, people freaking out, [saying] there’s going to be this global recession, change in the monetary order, all those sorts of things. So I think it’s going to be very choppy, a choppy to down month. Obviously, I hope the $76,500 holds. I think it will. But I think we’re going to come close to testing that.”
Bitcoin is trading for $84,014 at time of writing, up 1.7% in the last 24 hours.
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