JPMorgan Chase just issued a market update, warning sentiment and macroeconomic data do not support a sustained recovery for stocks.
Mislav Matejka, the head of global and European equity strategy at JPMorgan, says investors appear to be overly bullish on US equities despite elevated recession risks and trade uncertainty, reports Investing.com.
Last month, JPMorgan raised the odds of a global recession from 40% to 60% amid President Trump’s trade war.
Matejka says that, unlike in the past, US stocks are no longer a “good place to hide in” during an economic downturn.
“The actual recession could still be avoided, but if one were to come through, the views by many that it is already in the price could prove to be too optimistic.”
Matejka supports his bearish stance on the S&P 500 by pointing out that US equities are expensive, trading at 21x forward earnings, while growth expectations are too high to account for a potential recession. He also warns the Fed is poised to hold interest rates steady amid mounting inflation expectations, even as the economy shows signs of cracking.
Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones appears to echo JPMorgan’s outlook. In a new CNBC interview, Tudor Jones warns that Trump’s tariffs and a hawkish Fed could drag the stock market below its 2025 low of 4,835 points.
“For me, it’s pretty clear. You have Trump who’s locked in on tariffs. You have the Fed who’s locked in on not cutting rates. That’s not good for the stock market. We’ll probably go down to new lows…
There are taxes, like the largest tax increase since the [1960s]. So you can take 2 to 3% off growth and then you got the Fed who’s, unless they got really dovish and really, really cut, you’re probably going to new lows. And then when we’re at new lows, the hard data will start to follow and it will probably create the Fed to move, create Trump to move and then we’ll get some kind of rally after.”
As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 is trading at 5,659.
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