Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says that the economists predicting an imminent recession are getting it all wrong.
In an interview on the Global Money Talk YouTube channel, Lee says that the market is likely heading higher despite many economists warning of an economic slowdown.
“People can’t say they know anything with certainty. But in 2022, we had a series of rolling recessions that have continued, so for three years now. In 2022 the S&P was down 27%, and earnings didn’t recover until the second half of 2023. Investors at that time claimed the market was going to have more downside, because they thought the rolling recessions and the Fed tightening was going to lead to a bigger economic decline. We had argued strongly against that. We said that credit, the debt levels of consumers, was too low [for] a larger recession.
Today, the same conditions are true. Businesses and consumers aren’t highly levered. So there is risk of job loss coming, and that’s why we could have a recession, but for someone to be so confident that we’re going to have a recession, I think they’re dead wrong. And by the way, that’s what you’re hearing. I think a lot of economists are declaring a recession. In my 30 years, I’ve never seen an economist get the recession right. So the fact that many are claiming there’s a recession probably tells me the odds are very low of a recession.”
He also says that many economists often fail to predict accurately when recessions are actually happening.
“We usually go into recession and economists deny it and we are already in a recession. That’s what happened in 2008.”
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