The US dollar just had the worst first-half-year performance in over 50 years and is likely to weaken even more, according to the financial data and analytics firm S&P Global.
In a new report, S&P Global says the US dollar is rapidly weakening due to tariffs, threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence, rising US debt and inflation fears.
“The US dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of its currency peers, has fallen about 10.8% since the start of the year. That marks its worst first six months of a year since 1973. The greenback now sits at its lowest levels since February 2022 and stands to weaken further, according to currency strategists.”
The US dollar’s plummeting began after US President Donald Trump took office in January.
Says Derek Halpenny, managing director and head of research with MUFG Bank,
“The trigger for the move may have been uncertainties over the policy outlook, on trade in particular, but the erratic nature of policy formation as well.”
Elias Haddad, a global macro strategist with Brown Brothers Harriman, says that the US dollar is suffering from various factors that are likely to cause “structural drag” over the long term.
“By all measures, the dollar dominates on the international stage as a store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account. However, loss of confidence in US trade, fiscal, and security policies, and political meddling with the Fed’s independence threaten to accelerate the dollar’s declining role as the primary reserve currency.”
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 97.03 at time of writing.
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