Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio is warning of severe economic and financial consequences after US President Trump’s budget bill passed Congress.
In a post on the social media platform X, the billionaire says that Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” will increase the US national debt from about $230,000 per American household to $425,000 per American household over the next decade.
[adinserter block="1"]The ballooning national debt will have severe ramifications, according to Dalio.
“Now that the budget bill has passed Congress, we can see what the projections look like for deficits, government debt, and debt service expenses. In brief, the bill is expected to lead to spending of about $7 trillion a year with inflows of about $5 trillion a year, so the debt, which is now about 6x of the money taken in, 100% of GDP, and about $230,000 per American family, will rise over ten years to about 7.5x the money taken in, 130% of GDP and $425,000 per family.
That will increase interest and principal payments on the debt from about $10 trillion ($1 trillion in interest, $9 trillion in principal) to about $18 trillion (of which $2 trillion is interest payments), which will lead to either a big squeezing out (and cutting off) of spending and/or unimaginable tax increases, or a lot of printing and devaluing of money and pushing interest rates to unattractively low levels.”
Dalio believes the remedy to the looming fiscal crises is to cut spending and raise taxes to lower the annual deficit to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio.
“This printing and devaluing is not good for those holding bonds as a storehold of wealth, and what’s bad for bonds and US credit markets is bad for everyone because the US Treasury market is the backbone of all capital markets, which are the backbones of our economic and social conditions. Unless this path is soon rectified to bring the budget deficit from roughly 7% of GDP to about 3% by making adjustments to spending, taxes, and interest rates, big, painful disruptions will likely occur.”
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