A widely followed crypto analyst is warning traders that historical precedent suggests a challenging few months ahead for digital assets.
In a new interview with David Lin, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says there is reason to expect that the third quarter of this year could be bearish for crypto.
“So, kind of going into this year, I thought January 20th would mark a high – at least a local high – and my view was basically that if the 2024 high held as support during the pullback, then Bitcoin could go to all-time highs again. And we held at like $70K. We went to like $74K. The high from 2024 was like $73.8K. So, we have gone to new all-time highs.
We have not seen total market cap follow that, though. Total market cap is still at a lower high, so we are seeing some divergences there. I’d really like to see confirmation of that. I think that we’re likely going to see a pullback in the third quarter. We also saw a similar pattern in 2023, 2024, and 2022. It just seems to be a common thing.”
However, Cowen also recognizes the possibility that crypto may not follow historical trends and instead continue to rise as the year progresses.
“Obviously, I could be wrong – there’s always a chance we just go up into Q3. But one of the reasons I think there’ll be a pullback is, if you look at some of the macro data, initial claims tend to go up around the summertime. They went up in the last couple of years. So, I think you’ll probably see initial claims start to tick a little bit higher. That could, you know, that could put some uncertainty in the market.
I don’t really think initial claims are an issue until they’re printing 300K. I think that’s kind of where it becomes more problematic, but we haven’t seen that yet.”
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