An analyst from one of the largest asset managers in crypto is outlining the key drivers behind Bitcoin’s (BTC) historic bull run.
Matthew Sigel, the head of digital assets research at VanEck, says on the social media platform X that BTC is now up 30% year-to-date, outpacing gold (+27%), the MSCI ACWI (+11%) and the S&P 500 (+7%).
“This rally reflects deepening institutional engagement, favorable macro conditions, and emerging policy clarity.”
Sigel notes that corporate treasuries are driving net demand, having bought more than 300,000 BTC this year, more than double the amount absorbed by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
“MicroStrategy and MetaPlanet remain the largest accumulators, but a surge in shells, reverse mergers, and SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies), often backed by global investment banks, has fueled fresh capital formation in the sector. This dynamic marks a shift. Bitcoin is moving from speculative trading desks to strategic balance sheets.”
The digital assets researcher also notes that Bitcoin volatility dropped to around 23% in early July, one of the lowest levels in a decade.
“Lower volatility is making Bitcoin easier to size within institutional portfolios, particularly for allocators focused on Sharpe ratios and downside risk.”
Sigel says spot Bitcoin ETFs have picked up and brought in $3.7 billion in net inflows so far this month, with year-to-date inflows hovering around $16 billion.
“Participation is growing across retail, RIAs (registered investment advisors) and wirehouse platforms such as Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch, reflecting broader institutional acceptance.”
The researcher also points to “policy tailwinds” in Washington, DC.
“Crypto Week began July 15th, with three key bills under review: the GENIUS Act (stablecoins), the CLARITY Act (market structure), and the Anti-CBDC Act. Polymarket odds place an 89% probability on passage of the GENIUS Act this year, signaling bipartisan appetite to legitimize fiat-backed stablecoins and potentially unlock a wave of new issuance and payment infrastructure.”
Sigel says the potential for two interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve later this year could support flows into Bitcoin and gold.
He also notes miners continue to remain net holders following the April 2024 BTC halving, with their balances recently reaching a 12-month high.
“Only approximately 5.2% of Bitcoin supply has moved in the last 30 days, according to IntoTheBlock, indicating strong holder conviction and reduced available float.”
BTC is trading at $116,524 at time of writing and is down more than 3% in the past 24 hours.
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