A top level executive at JPMorgan Chase says that a new wave of inflation is likely only in the early innings, despite recent tame data.
In a new interview on Bloomberg Television, JPMorgan Asset Management’s chief global strategist, David Kelly says that “we’re just getting started” when it comes to inflation due to a delayed reaction to tariffs, which he says will ultimately be passed off to the consumer.
“This thing will feed through, it’s just a number of months. Inflation is going up very steadily, and it will be above, we think, about 3.5% in CPI by the end of the year.”
Kelly also believes that a hidden catalyst is set to stoke inflation numbers by the beginning of next year. According to the banker, income tax refunds will cause a rush of inflationary pressures on the US economy due to the American consumer’s notoriously aggressive spending habits.
“The economy is going to be slower in the second half of this year as this goods inflation feeds through. The big kicker here that people are not talking about is the huge rush of income tax refunds that’s going to kick in at the start of next year. It’s going to be like an extra stimulus check, and we’ll see what happens. If you give a mouse a cookie, he’ll want a glass of milk. You give an American a stimulus check, he’ll want to spend it.”
US consumer prices rose moderately in July at a rate of 2.7%, slightly below expectations, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday.
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