Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin (BTC) is primed to top out in the fourth quarter if history repeats itself.
In a new strategy session, Cowen tells 917,000 subscribers of his YouTube channel that in previous cycles, Bitcoin has traditionally ended the third quarter of the year after the halving in the red before hitting the top in the succeeding quarter.
“Let’s suppose it plays out like the historical pattern… So up in July and August, pull back to the 20-week [simple moving average] SMA in September if it repeats how it always has. And then up into whatever the market cycle top is going to be.”
Based on historical precedent, Cowen says the bear market for Bitcoin in every cycle has traditionally begun during the year of the US midterm elections.
On where Bitcoin’s top will be this cycle, the widely followed analyst says,
“After the first cycle from the 20-week SMA in September [of 2013], Bitcoin then rallied about 1,000% to then put in the market cycle top. In the cycle after that, it rallied about 500% after the September of 2017] pullback. In the cycle after that, from the September [of 2021] pullback, it rallied about 70%….
Now, let’s suppose that the 20-week SMA hits around $110,000 here in a few weeks. And then let’s suppose Bitcoin gets a pullback to that level after hopefully first rallying up higher. Where would that put Bitcoin? Well, a 20% rally from $110,000 puts it at $131,000… …30% from there would be $143,000, 40% from there would be $154,000. Okay. Now, last cycle it was 70% up. And that would put Bitcoin all the way up at $186,000.”
Cowen, however, says that since Bitcoin has been recording diminishing returns over time, it “might be hard” for the crypto king to reach $186,000 this cycle.
Bitcoin is trading at $118,542 at time of writing.
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