BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes Predicts Imminent Return of Crypto ‘Up Only’ Season – Here’s Why

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes believes it’s only a matter of time before bullish momentum takes over the crypto market.

The crypto veteran says on X that he’s keeping a close watch on the Treasury General Account (TGA), which is the general checking account of the U.S. Treasury Department held at the Federal Reserve.

Hayes predicts that crypto will trigger fresh rallies once the government completely replenishes the TGA.

“TGA refill almost done – target is $850 billion. With this liquidity drain complete, up only can resume.”

TGA activities are typically viewed as a liquidity metric for the US financial system. Refilling the account indicates a liquidity drain as the government siphons commercial bank reserves, putting pressure on short-term interest rates and causing borrowing costs to rise.

Earlier this month, Hayes predicted that the crypto bull market is about to enter the juiciest part of the cycle. He said that President Trump will send the crypto market flying with monetary policies designed to unlock liquidity from multiple sources. According to the crypto veteran, Trump has a history of giving Americans free money to secure popular support, noting that he doesn’t think the president will change tactics now.

“He’s going to provide more free sh*t. Otherwise, him and his Trumpian Republicans are going to get voted out of office in 2026 and then in 2028, in the presidential election.

So I think he knows exactly what he needs to do, which is provide free sh*t and print money. And that’s what he’s going to do.” 

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