‘Large Upside Risk’ Incoming for Trillion-Dollar Asset That’s Exploded 47% Year-to-Date, Says Goldman Sachs Analysts: Report

Goldman Sachs reportedly says that red-hot gold may now rally even higher than the banking giant’s most recent forecast.

Bloomberg reports that a team of Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven says that the inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have exceeded the estimates in their model used to forecast $4,000 per ounce for mid-2026.

The model also forecasts $4,300 per ounce for the end of next year.

The analysts now say that there is a “large upside risk” that gold exceeds their estimates.

According to the bank, gold could approach $5,000 an ounce if just 1% of the privately-owned US Treasury market flows into the precious metal.

Gold shot up 12% since August 29th, while it is up about 47% year-to-date.

The analysts say that the latest gold surge may be due to central banks ramping up their buying of gold after a seasonal buying slowdown. They also say that investors looking to profit off a sudden gold breakout may have contributed to, but were not the main catalyst for gold reaching new highs.

Gold’s latest rally also comes amid the US government’s shutdown, causing economic uncertainty.

Last month, Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart said,

“Should private investors diversify more heavily into gold, we see potential upside to gold prices to well above our $4,000 mid-2026 baseline. As a result, gold remains our highest-conviction long recommendation.”

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