Crypto capitalist and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says a seasonal pattern that typically marks the end of Bitcoin (BTC) bull runs won’t repeat this time around.
In a new blog post, Hayes says traders shouldn’t bank on Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle to mark the end of its current bull run.
“There have been three cycles, where the all-time high (ATH) occurring every four years. As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us, traders wish to apply the historical pattern and forecast an end to this bull run. They apply this rule without understanding why it worked in the past. And without this historical understanding, they miss why it will fail this time.”
According to Hayes, previous Bitcoin tops happened when US and Chinese monetary policies ceased or slowed down the printing of money.
However, Hayes says there’s nothing stopping the printers this time around.
Hayes says Trump’s plan to grow the economy by lowering interest rates, lowering the cost of housing and deregulating banks will help the BTC bull run continue longer than the typical four-year cycle, adding that while China might not help push the BTC run, it won’t stand in the way.
“In the US, newly elected President Trump wants to run the economy hot… The Fed resumed cutting interest rates in September even though inflation is above its own target…
Trump also speaks about lowering the cost of housing to release trillions of dollars of trapped home equity because of the rapid rise in housing prices post-2008.
[United States Secretary of the Treasury Scott] Bessent will deregulate banks so that they can increase loans to critical industries. The future as painted by the ruling political elite points to lower, not higher, interest rates and higher, not lower, growth in the money supply…
Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future.”
Bitcoin is trading at $112,599 at time of writing, a 7.4% drop in the last 24 hours.
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