Bitcoin Faces Quantum Computing Threat in Just 2-8 Years, Warns Charles Edwards

Quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s encryption far sooner than many people believe, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards.

In a new speech at TOKEN2049, Edwards says he believes that Bitcoin developers have a limited amount of time to address quantum concerns.

“Within two to eight years, the quantum machine will break the existing elliptic curve cryptography of Bitcoin.”

Edwards points to several official statements on the quantum threat to Bitcoin:

• Jameson Lopp, a Bitcoin developer, estimating a 50% risk in 4-9 years; a math PhD specializing in quantum predicting 2-6 years for Bitcoin

• McKinsey, forecasting Q-day breaking RSA in 2-10 years, implying Bitcoin breaks earlier

• A 2017 Bitcoin quantum paper by Microsoft, BP, INQ and Meta researchers stating that only 2300 logical qubits are needed to break Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), with projections indicating this capability could be achieved around 2028–2030.

To get ahead of the issue, Edwards recommends transitioning to quantum-resistant algorithms right away.

“Bitcoin needs to transition to quantum-resistant algorithms like those based on lattice cryptography or hash-based signatures as soon as possible.”

After the change, Edwards says users would be required to move funds to new addresses, warning failure could lead to mass theft and erosion of trust in the $2 trillion asset.

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