Market analyst Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin (BTC) is likely gearing up for a major bounce after this week’s correction.
Cowen tells his 1.1 million followers on X that Bitcoin may jump back to its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently around $104,000, based on historical precedence.
However, the analyst warns that BTC may be entering a bearish cycle and eventually correct down to the 200-week moving average (WMA) at around $60,000.
“While I think Bitcoin will go to the 200-week SMA ($60,000-$70,000) in 2026, there is a high probability it will have a bounce back to the 200-day SMA before going that low.
All prior cycle bear markets were confirmed by a macro lower high at the 200-day SMA.”
In a new YouTube video, Cowen tells his 961,000 subscribers that Bitcoin may be entering a bear market in the fourth quarter of this year that continues for most of 2026, based on prior four-year cycles.
The four-year cycle is based on the idea that Bitcoin’s price follows the asset’s halvings, which cut BTC miners’ rewards in half roughly every four years.
“What’s happening right now is setting up a topping process, and the market would likely go lower in the first half of 2026. That doesn’t mean that it can’t go up at all in 2026. It just means, generally speaking, that in the midterm years you’ll witness lower highs for a while. The time based perspective is the most compelling case for the 2026 bear market. And again, that doesn’t mean the bear market starts in 2026. Normally, the bear market starts in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year, and then it continues for approximately one year.
For instance, in 2021 the top was in November, the bottom was a year later in November of 2022. In 2017 the top was in December, the bottom was about a year later in December of 2018. We know that bear markets last approximately one year. In 2013 it actually lasted a little longer than one year, because the top was in late November, early December, and then the low occurred early January. It was about like 13 months or so. But all in all, you would expect a normal bear market to last approximately one year.”
Bitcoin is trading for $89,642 at time of writing, down 3.9% in the last 24 hours.
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