As Bitcoin’s price continues to tumble, the CEO of the billion-dollar crypto asset manager Bitwise says the theory that BTC follows a predictable four year cycle is cooked.
In a new post on X, Hunter Horsley says the cyclical notion based on BTC’s supply schedule halving is over, with holders denied a massive breakout this time around.
As for what’s next, Horsley believes BTC is now poised to reach new highs next year.
“BTC is down year to date, and the four year cycle is no more. The four year cycles were a pattern based on a bygone era.
The market structure and the types of investors diversifying. The space is maturing, and moving toward the mainstream. I think Bitcoin is headed higher in 2026.”
Horsley says Bitcoin and crypto at large are currently in a consolidation phase, as weak hands bow out.
“Right now crypto is consolidating. What does that mean?
In essence, it means high conviction investors are buying assets from lower conviction investors. One person sees BTC at $88,000 or SOL at $133 and says, ‘I want out.’
Another person sees $88,000 or $133 and says, ‘I have so much conviction, I’ll buy it from you — I’m happy to have that be my cost basis.’
And the lower it goes, the happier the new holders will be. Which is good — you want happy holders.
When the consolidation has played through, you wind up with a refreshed, higher conviction ownership base. And that’s the benefit of consolidation.”
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