A crypto strategist who accurately predicted Bitcoin’s current downtrend says BTC may now be gearing up for a countertrend rally.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen tells his 1.1 million followers on X that he sees Bitcoin sparking a rally very soon after plummeting to the low $70,000 range.
“BTC just dropped below the April 2025 low. If it does not bounce soon, this is going to be one hell of a midterm year. If it can bounce, it gives us a few months and gets us closer to October without so much bad price action (likely the bottom in time).
I feel like the bear narrative has been really strong for a while, and so I would expect a countertrend rally soon so that it gives the bulls some hope for a while.
However, I have learned my lesson in prior cycles, so I do not attempt to trade them. Countertrend rallies can happen, but sometimes they happen when you least expect them, not when everyone expects them. It makes sense to assume that a sweep of a prior low would offer some relief, as that has been true for BTC even during the bull market.”
However, Cowan warns that Bitcoin may first have a deeper correction to its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently around $57,000, before mounting a rally based on historical precedence.
“But in 2014/2018/2022 when BTC fell below the 100-W SMA, it was straight to the 200-W SMA before any relief occurred. The time to sell BTC was late last year, not panicking on dumps in the midterm year. I just try and focus on the bigger picture and the bigger picture is that late Q3/early Q4 will be a better time to move real money back into the market.
Between now and then it is just people trying to make money during difficult times by trying to trade support/resistance levels.”
Bitcoin is trading for $73,082 at time of writing, down 4.1% at time of writing.
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