S&P 500 Could Surge to 9,000, Say J.P. Morgan Private Bank Analysts – Here’s When

Analysts at J.P. Morgan Private Bank say the S&P 500 may be on its way to 9,000 fueled by broader artificial intelligence adoption and a sustained earnings supercycle.

Strategist Kriti Gupta says the index has already delivered six consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings growth. Global earnings growth accelerated from 15.3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 22.6% in the first quarter of 2026, the highest in over four years.

The analyst says 9,000 could happen by mid-2027, but requires AI adoption to spread beyond the technology sector, lifting productivity and margins economy-wide.

The largest cloud providers are deploying over $800 billion in AI capital spending annually, scaling to an estimated $1.16 trillion by 2027. Analysts draw a parallel to the late 1990s productivity boom, when the S&P 500 delivered five consecutive years of returns above 20%.

According to J.P. Morgan Private Bank:

“While not the base case, the S&P 500 could reach as high as 9,000 by mid-2027. A ~22% gain from current levels may seem optimistic, but remains entirely plausible.”

Key risks include rising bond yields, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing more than 40 basis points in May, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The analysts describe the current pullback in semiconductor and momentum stocks as “entirely healthy” and positioning for the next leg higher.

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