A prominent crypto analyst and economist says fans of Ripple and XRP are upset with him for no good reason.
On Wednesday, Alex Krüger posted a chart designed to show that cherry-picking an arbitrary starting date when analyzing assets can yield biased and inaccurate results.
To illustrate his point, he posted a chart of XRP using a linear regression – a technical indicator designed to show potential trends based on price volatility.
When picking a starting date of January 1, 2018, Krüger highlighted the fact that the indicator shows XRP going all the way to $0.
Regressing $XRP against time starting Jan/1/2018 using a linear regression forecasts price to hit zero next February. #Perspective pic.twitter.com/gLh4kZZv06
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) November 27, 2019
Krüger clarified his aim was to prove a point about technical analysis.
“This is not a prediction. Used XRP and a simple statistical model to illustrate the bias introduced by choice of starting point or sample.
=> long bias: regress from starting point or lowest price point.
=> short bias, regress from the top.
I used XRP to illustrate how price predictions based on statistical modeling are heavily dependent on starting point. No, XRP could not go to down to zero by next February.”
After receiving a hefty dose of backlash, Krüger jokingly posted another tweet with a line showing XRP rising to $60 by the year 2030.
Here. I fixed it. $XRP at $60 by 2030. XRP army should be happy now. You will all be immensely wealthy. pic.twitter.com/rNUECJb7ia
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) November 29, 2019
Krüger says anyone thinking about investing in the extremely risky and volatile world of crypto assets should check their emotions at the door.
Those who don’t do so will greatly increase the odds that they will lose it all, he says.
“I have come to the conclusion most crypto investors should be or go broke, and would be much better off simply investing in the S&P 500 and hodling.
Some asked why I said so. Crypto investors are progressively becoming more biased and irrational, getting overly attached to coins. Almost as if each coin represented a religion. Generally best to keep emotions and religious beliefs separate from investing decisions.”
