A former manager of equity and equity derivatives at Goldman Sachs says Bitcoin’s upside is enormous, and BTC at its current value may be ‘ludicrously’ underpriced.
In a new interview on the Stephan Livera Podcast, Raoul Pal explains why macro strategists are willing to bet on Bitcoin hitting an $8 trillion market cap or higher.
“If you look at PlanB’s stock flow model, you can see the comparative upside. If you try and get your head around the digitization of everything. If you try and get your head around an alternative financial system.
Even if it has a low probability. If you recreate a low probability of let’s say, what’s the global money supply and global debt? It’s something like $80 trillion. So if it’s worth $80 trillion dollars, let’s say you have a 10% probability. That’s $8 trillion. [Bitcoin] is currently worth $200 billion. So even if it has a 1% chance of working – that’s how probabilistic frameworks work.
And what it’s telling you is it’s ludicrously underpriced if any of these probabilities play out. So that’s how crazy attractive it is and that’s why it’s sucking in so many of these macro guys, because they’re like, ‘Damn, nothing else has this payoff.’ And they’re used to trading in options. Options is what they do. Binary outcomes is what they look for. Asymmetric bets is how you make a career. So they’re looking at the asymmetries embedded in the space and they’re like, ‘Ok, this is super interesting.'”
You can check out the full podcast below.
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