A quantitative analyst who took the crypto community by storm after applying the stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio to Bitcoin says he will likely have to disappear if his controversial predictions are validated.
In a new interview with podcast host Stephan Livera, PlanB says his forecast – which shows BTC hitting $1 million over the next decade – will likely come true if the leading cryptocurrency can overtake the US dollar’s status as the global standard of money.
If that happens, he says the global political landscape will not be pretty.
“A lot of people think I go dark when the model breaks, when they shout at me for being wrong. That’s not the case. I think I’ll stay then, because we’ll need a different model. I will go dark if the model is successful, because if the model is successful it will not be a pretty picture.
It will be nasty. It will be, maybe, war. It will be some people have Bitcoin, some people don’t have Bitcoin. It will be some countries have Bitcoin, others won’t have Bitcoin. It will be the US dollar losing its reserve status. It will be geopolitical. It will be military.”
The analyst says he believes the model, which tracks Bitcoin’s scarcity by dividing the total supply by the number of new coins created each year, will prove to be accurate in the long run and will outlive the US dollar.
“I think the model will not break down. The dollar will break down. In fact, that’s a certainty because all fiat currencies, all 400 went down in the last years. There’s none that survive. And especially reserve currencies. They last 100 years, but there’s none that lasts for 200 years.
So it will come to an end, the dollar. It’s not a thing that’s even debated that much. I think the model will outlive the dollar.”