After its huge rally in 2020, CNBC analyst Brian Kelly says anyone now looking to buy Bitcoin should consider slowing their roll.
The CEO of the digital currency investment firm BKCM says he still thinks the price of Bitcoin will rise substantially in the long run, but anyone looking to enter the market now should be prepared for a pullback to $12,000.
“Let’s be clear, I’m still a Bitcoin bull. In the long run, I’m going to be a bull for the next decade. But, if I take off the long-term investor hat and put on my trader hat, there’s a couple things out there that I’m starting to see that are signs of a top. More than any other asset class in the world, Bitcoin is subject to fear of missing out (fomo). We’re starting to see speculative coins, coins that are under $5, start to go up 30% or 40% in a day. Those are the types of things that happen at short to medium-term tops.
When I look at the address growth, the market’s pricing it at about 25% address gross over the next 30 days. Whenever you get that big of an address growth implied, that’s a caution sign. The last one is that we’re starting to see retail come into this market and you’re starting to see the interest rates that it charges on margin going much higher.
So all of those things are signs that hey, I think it’s fine to buy Bitcoin. Earlier this year I said Bitcoin could go to $50,000 within a year. I still think that’s the case, but if you’re buying Bitcoin at $19,000, you need to be prepared that it drops to $12,000 before it goes to $50,000. So I’d just exercise caution on any asset that’s up almost 200% in a year.”
Kelly says his fund has exited some of its long positions on Bitcoin in anticipation of a correction.
He believes investors looking to enter the market or increase their position in Bitcoin should invest half of what they ultimately want to put into the top cryptocurrency and then wait to invest the rest after BTC goes through a healthy retracement.
“For the fund, we’re less long Bitcoin this week than we were two or three weeks ago. We’ll always have a core position, but you can trade around it.
If you’re an investor at home and you say I want to get some Bitcoin, I think it’s going to $50,000, maybe buy half of it right here. Wait for a pullback. Wait for one of those times where we say Bitcoin’s had its worst week in two years. That’s the day you want to be buying the other half.”
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