Popular crypto analyst and BTC bull PlanB is outlining Bitcoin’s worst-case scenario for the month of July.
The widely followed analyst, who has gained a massive following for being the first to apply the stock-to-flow model (S2F) to Bitcoin, says the S2F is in a “make or break” phase, where it will either be further confirmed or invalidated in the next six months.
The S2F has traditionally been applied to commodities like gold and silver. It predicts the performance of an asset based on the idea that the price increases as the asset becomes more scarce. PlanB has used the S2F to predict Bitcoin topping out at $288,000 this bull run, but the analyst concedes to his 609,000 followers that BTC’s bearish price action is challenging the model.
“June closing price $35,037… As far below S2F model as in Jan 2019. Next six months will be make or break for S2F (again).”
According to PlanB, the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin this month is a monthly close at $28,000. However, the Bitcoin bull says brighter days are ahead for the world’s leading crypto and notes that the worst possible monthly close for BTC in August is $47,000. He also asserts that $64,000 was not the peak of the bull run.
My on-chain data (color overlay in the chart below) tells me this bull is not over and 64K was not the top. That is in line with s2f(x) model. Also my floor indicator (not based on s2f) says we will not go below 47k Aug close. pic.twitter.com/K6Hfjdp26x
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) July 2, 2021
PlanB adds he may have jumped the gun on dismissing the idea of diminishing returns, or the concept that each Bitcoin bull cycle gets less volatile, and therefore peaks at a lower price relative to the previous one. Although he says the next six months will determine whether that’s true, he’s betting that BTC will land somewhere well into the six figures by the end of the bull run.
“Looks like I was too early dismissing diminishing returns scenario. In fact, this will be the key question next 6 months:
1) Was $64,000 the top and will we oscillate between $25K-50K?
2) Or was $64,000 not the top and will the bull market resume towards S2F $100,000-$288,000?
My money is on two.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $34,727 according to CoinGecko.
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