Popular on-chain analyst Will Clemente says that a Bitcoin supercycle is in the cards as long-term BTC holders are changing the market structure of the leading cryptocurrency.
Clemente tells his 205,900 Twitter followers that the illiquid supply ratio, a metric that tracks the number of illiquid coins relative to overall BTC supply, has been in a strong uptrend ever since Bitcoin recovered from the pandemic-induced panic last year.
“If I had to use one chart to argue that we are in a ‘Supercycle’ it would be this. Macro HODLing (hold on for dear life) behavior has shifted after March of last year. Makes a convincing case for the end of the 4-year cycle.
A Bitcoin supercycle is a thesis suggesting that BTC will continue rallying and print fresh all-time highs instead of entering a bear market and having massive 80% drawdowns just like what happened during the end of the 2013 and 2017 bull cycles.
According to Will Clemente, long-term holders, or entities that have kept their BTC dormant for at least five months, are changing the narrative for this cycle.
“Structurally, this time actually is different. Long-term Bitcoin holders set the floor.”
Clemente also highlights that the number of coins owned by long-term holders has made a sharp recovery since the May 2021 crash and is now at an all-time high.
“We’ve got a new all-time high in Bitcoin supply held by long-term investors. These entities now hold 12,731,020 Bitcoins. As a percentage of circulating supply, these long-term investors now possess 67.7% of supply. When factoring out lost coins (using adjusted supply instead of circulating) this number is as high as 84.5% of supply.”
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