Closely followed crypto analyst Willy Woo is looking at Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics to determine whether the king crypto’s bull market is still underway.
In a new episode of The Bitcoin Forecast, Woo takes a look at the ratio of long-term holders (LTHs) versus short-term holders (STHs) of BTC.
Holders of Bitcoin with coins older than five months are considered LTHs, while holders with coins any younger than five months are considered short-term holders.
Woo says that when LTHs reach peak accumulation, BTC tends to ignite a strong rally that allows long-term holders to unload their holdings to a new batch of short-term holders. According to Woo’s data, LTH’s just peaked within the last few weeks.
“Long-term holders are at their peak, and so generally when we’re this zone, you’ve got peak accumulation. These guys tend to sell down in the rallies. You saw that in the last rally from October last year, and when they run out of ammo, the short-term holders hold those coins, generally the new weak hand investors…
We’re in the strong area that has been selling down meaning they have instigated taking profits.”
The on-chain analyst says LTHs with strong hands have accumulated all the BTC they can, signaling that a bear market is unlikely to manifest. While it’s hard to say how long it will take, Woo says the bull run will likely continue for as long as it takes for LTHs to pass off their coins to the STHs.
“So structurally this is quite bullish. The strong-handed guys have all their ammo. I don’t see any kind of bear market when we zoom out…
Typically, this is a sign of strength, so depending on how long this starts to drop down into these lower regions, we’ll give us a timing signature on how long our bullish phase of the market will run for…
I’m expecting this run to continue, and maybe it goes into midway of 2022, maybe this chops around a lot. It [has] yet to be seen, but long-term it’s structurally bullish.”
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