A popular crypto analyst is plotting out where he sees top crypto asset Bitcoin (BTC) going after a downward market trend over the past several weeks.
In a new strategy session, Benjamin Cowen tells his 659,000 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin has fallen below the bull market support band, which is notable because altcoins also tend to fall in price against BTC when this occurs.
“The problem is when we’re down here [current low] and have shakeouts, is that altcoins never quite recover to where they were before Bitcoin had its previous shakeout.
When Bitcoin’s above the 20-week moving average, like over here [late 2020 into early 2021], in these phases we know that altcoins can quickly recover and then they can quickly go new all-time highs.”
Moving on to addressing Bitcoin itself, Cowen thinks predictions of an epic price collapse are unlikely.
“Do I think we’re going back to $10,000 and spend a couple [of] years hanging out between $10,000 and $15,000? I do not. But I also don’t see us having a parabolic rally next week that’s going to take us to $100,000.
I just want to be realistic and keep people down to earth with realistic expectations and not just constantly expect these crazy rallies that everyone keeps predicting.
Wait, be conservative, be patient, wait for the rally to come to you.”
The analyst next discusses how extended market cycles would logically also include longer periods of sideways price action.
“I would still argue that if we bounce off those levels [$30,000 to $60,000] like we did back in the summer, it still looks like [we’re in] a long cycle.
We had these long reaccumulation phases last cycle [2015-2017]. They weren’t quite as long, but there were still certainly phases where Bitcoin just went more or less sideways for upwards of half a year…
Furthermore, one would expect that a cycle that is lengthened should have even longer sideways periods.”
Cowen wraps up his analysis by charting out Bitcoin’s future price moves, noting that he believes BTC will once again revisit previous all-time highs by mid-2022.
“What I’m looking for going forward is not a bear market that’s going to take us back to $10,000. But I am looking for Bitcoin to bottom, to go sideways, and then to start turning higher.
And then whenever that happens, whether it starts going up at $42k or $40k, or whether you even test the lows from the summer [under $30k], what I’m looking for at that point is to come back up to the prior all-time high, to break it, and then to ultimately trend higher.
And then hopefully prove that the lengthening-cycle theory is correct, and to continue along the way.”
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