Crypto analyst Nicholas Merten is predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) will not hit a low last recorded in July of 2021.
In a new video update, Merten tells his 515,000 YouTube subscribers that while the flagship cryptocurrency could still see a price drop, Bitcoin is unlikely to dip to around the $30,000 price.
“The big question that a lot of people have in their minds is whether or not this is going to go all the way back down and see some calamity, some crazy sell-off, down to the $30,000 range.
And I’m going to be honest with you all – all the while it’s not to say we couldn’t pull back maybe another $1,000 or so in price – I do not think we’re going down to that $30,000 range. And I’ll stand by that.”
According to the crypto analyst, the declining supply of Bitcoin as well as its tendency to set bullish higher low setups are the reasons the flagship cryptocurrency is unlikely to plunge to around $30,000.
“Bitcoin has been continuously setting at higher lows over time. I know a lot of people think that prices are just going to roll over and that we’re going to come back down to this range here at around $30,000. But I just don’t think it’s the case here considering the supply contraction…”
The crypto analyst further says that the increasing number of people holding Bitcoin for over a year is growing, which is aiding in the supply contraction.
“What we’re seeing here, according to the metrics – and the on-chain metrics do not lie here, they’re fully transparent, they’re based off the Bitcoin ledger – we can see here that there are more and more people on average who are holding their Bitcoin for more than a year or more.
And this is the kind of supply contraction that in the past has led to entire bull markets or mid-cycle rallies.”
Merten also says that weeks or months from now, Bitcoin could start outpacing stock market indices such as the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq.
The crypto analyst’s bullish thesis is based on the chart of BTC against the SPX (BTCUSD/SPX). According to Merten, the pair is trading within a large bull pennant and is now gearing up to take out its diagonal resistance after holding support for most of 2022.
“I do believe here going into some time later on in May, and possibly June in the sense of you know really kind of stretching it, here getting back up into this range, getting above this ratio, breaking past this previous resistance, making it support and setting the foundation going into the summer for Bitcoin to really chart higher in price and start to significantly outpace the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the broader equities.”
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