A closely followed crypto trader is unveiling what he believes is the most realistic price path for Bitcoin (BTC) for the rest of the year.
In a new strategy session, trader Kevin Svenson tells his 104,900 Twitter followers that he’s keeping an eye on the 20-month exponential average (EMA), which he says has been key in signaling reversals in the long-term trend of Bitcoin.
[adinserter block="1"]“When the price of an asset is on an uptrend and then it catches up with the long-term moving averages, usually that’s a sign that the trend is dying down. The momentum is lost. If you cross below them, that is a bearish signal.”
Svenson highlights that the 20-month EMA was a reliable indicator of major trend shifts during the 2014 and 2018 market cycles.
“That happened over here in 2014. If we go over here in 2018, [we had] a major run-up. Trend starts to go sideways after the run-up, and then we meet the long-term moving averages. We closed below that. It’s a bear market.”
According to the crypto trader, Bitcoin just closed below the 20-month EMA which he says does not bode well for BTC bulls.
“We just had our first monthly close seven days ago below the 20-month EMA. That does indicate that we had a nice run-up, the trend started to go sideways and we caught up with the long-term moving averages. We actually closed below it at the end of April.
When you catch up to the long-term moving averages, we’re likely going to see some kind of downtrend for at least four to two months. I would just say up to half a year, anywhere from two months to half a year of downside, sideways action at lower levels before running up into the next halving.”
The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to happen in the first half of 2024.
Follow us on X, Facebook and TelegramDon't Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any assets including cryptocurrencies, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.
Featured Image: Shutterstock/Taves
