The Real Vision chief executive says in a new YouTube video that traders and investors should look 12 to 18 months ahead as asset markets tend to price the future.
“Right now, we can hear people all on Twitter say, ‘We’re going into a recession. It’s clear there’s going to be another leg down in equities because they need to price in the recession.’ That’s assuming that everything operates in real-time. But it doesn’t.
So when I look at the year-on-year rates of change of let’s say the NASDAQ and compare it to the ISM Index, which is my guide to the business cycle… It suggests that the NASDAQ is pricing in ISM at around 40. ISM at 40 is in a relatively deep recession. ISM at 47 is usually a recession level. And 40 is something to the order of magnitude of negative 2% GDP growth. So it’s already priced in.”
The ISM Manufacturing Index is viewed as an indicator of the health of the US economy. It currently sits at 52.8 as of September 1st, according to Investing.com.
Pal also thinks it’s likely that inflation goes negative within the next 18 months, which he says is good news for risk assets like crypto.
“If we look out 12 months, the recession is behind us, rates are lower and inflation is low. So that is a very good outcome for risk assets and crypto. Crypto bottomed in June. We had the retest. Bitcoin had a retest only two days ago, and I think it was the retest.
My DeMark indicators, which I use mainly for my technical analysis gave me that signal. ETH had a much stronger signal in June.
I’m thinking the markets are forward-looking. I think the sentiment is extremely bearish, and we’re going into a potential change in the macro.”
Traders use the DeMark indicator to spot possible reversals in trends.
Bitcoin is trading at $22,191 at time of writing. Ethereum is trading at $1,692.
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