Popular analyst Nicholas Merten is laying out a timeline for Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto to recover from the collapse of digital asset exchange FTX and its associated entities.
In a new strategy session, Merten tells his 512,000 YouTube subscribers that with Bitcoin showing obvious weakness as it remains below the 200-week moving average, another leg down is more than likely.
He sets a price target of about $13,600 for a possible Bitcoin bear market bottom.
“We are well below that 200-week moving average. This is the first in Bitcoin’s history. On top of that, we just simply take a look at the percentage decline from top to bottom, we got to around 77.6%. Definitely looking like we might be getting close to that 80% target that I think many of us would agree is likely more in line with what we should expect. But, important to step back and again, another reminder here, that an additional 3% or 4% for Bitcoin takes a lot of effort.
It’s going to take us well below that $14,000 target towards around $13,600.
I would say, again, while everyone’s got different opinions on this, to be a bit more cautious. I would expect that if you’re really trying to buy the dip and you’re not going to wait for a trend reversal… We would likely expect something in this pocket somewhere around 82% and 84% as we reach that big even number of $10,000.”
Merten says the collapse of FTX, compounded by the other recent failures of crypto lending company Celsius and brokerage firm Voyager, will probably keep prices in consolidation for a year at minimum, or possibly even two more years.
“I know a lot of people want to buy the flash dips here, but as you can see, price is going to take a long period of time – even if this is the bottom – it is going to take a long period of time of consolidation before things get fixed. Trust me on this, FTX, the whole situation is a complete mess.
It is an embarrassment to the industry, and trust me I have no incentive to say this… It is going to set this industry back. Plus all that happened with Celsius and Voyager and all the major players out there, it’s going to set this industry back a year plus. You can bet on it. At a minimum, potentially a year or two years with the distrust this is going to build for institutions.”
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