A widely followed crypto analyst is outlining what he believes could be the worst-case scenarios for the leading two digital assets.
In a new interview on the Altcoin Daily YouTube channel, crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen says that macroeconomic headwinds could drive Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) to fresh bear market lows.
[adinserter block="1"]Looking at Ethereum first, Cowen predicts that ETH could lose as much as 65% of its value from its current price of $1,175.
“The worst case scenario would be dependent on how bad this potential recession ends up being. It’s hard to know exactly how that’s going to affect crypto, but I would say for Ethereum, the main levels I’m watching are the $400-$600 range.
I don’t know if it’s going to go all the way down to $400, but I do think a $600 ETH is potentially in the cards mainly because I think there’s a lot of evidence to suggest that it’s about one cycle behind Bitcoin in terms of volatility.
[ETH’s] first cycle [was] a solid 95% bear market and Bitcoin’s first bear market was 94%. Bitcoin’s second bear market was around 87% so if Ethereum goes down 87% from its all-time high this time, or even 88%, that’s gonna put it at just below $600, so I think there’s a case to be made that Ethereum could have this final capitulation down into the $400-$600 range.”
The popular analyst goes on to present what he feels could be the worst-case scenario for the top crypto asset by market cap, adding that he doesn’t think it will be hit as hard as altcoins.
“I don’t think [Bitcoin] has to drop nearly as much as some of these altcoins to actually [find] its bottom… The main indicators that I’m still looking at that it [still] needs to trigger are things like Bitcoin normally has a daily close below its balanced price.
Right now, the balanced price is right at $15,000 so that would tend to make me think that we need to go below $15,000 at some point.”
Bitcoin’s balanced price is a model that attempts to capture the fair value of the king crypto by measuring the difference between BTC’s realized price and transferred price.
BTC is changing hands for $16,154 at time of writing, down 2.54% in the last 24 hours.
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