A crypto analyst who correctly called Bitcoin’s (BTC) 2018 bottom says the king crypto is setting up for another corrective move en route to carving a fresh bear market low.
The pseudonymous analyst Smart Contracter tells his 216,200 Twitter followers that Bitcoin’s recent rally from its current bear market low of $15,546 is likely coming to an end.
“I’m still of the belief for now that this move up on BTC is part of a corrective ABC wave four before making a new low sub-$15,000 into Q1 2023 where we find a longer-term bottom.”
Smart Contracter practices the Elliott Wave theory, a technical analysis approach that attempts to predict future price action by following the psychology of market participants that tends to manifest in waves. According to the theory, a downtrend is made up of five waves, where the asset sees brief bounces during waves two and four.
According to Smart Contracter’s chart, Bitcoin appears to be on the last leg of its wave four bounce, gearing up for a final run toward $18,000. The analyst predicts that BTC will subsequently continue its downtrend to his target of around $14,500 to complete the five-wave cycle.
At time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands for $16,979, suggesting a nearly 15% decrease should BTC reach Smart Contracter’s bottom target.
The crypto strategist is also keeping a close watch on the US dollar index (DXY), which he says is flashing bullish signals.
“Big DXY reversal today, not what you want to see if you’re bullish on crypto. Even best-case scenario, I think it still bounces to around 108-109 which will likely send crypto lower.”
Traders keep a close watch on the DXY as a strong index suggests that investors are selling risk assets like Bitcoin and stocks in favor of the US dollar.
Meanwhile, fellow Elliott Wave practitioner Credible believes that Bitcoin can surge above resistance at $18,000. The analyst tells his 336,200 Twitter followers that Bitcoin is in an uptrend on the one-hour chart and looks poised for a big bounce.
Based on the Elliott Wave theory, an asset in an uptrend also goes through five waves, where waves one, three and five are rallies to the upside. Looking at the analyst’s chart, he sees BTC ending its wave two corrective move at $16,400 before igniting a wave three surge above $18,000.
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