Blockstream CEO and Bitcoin (BTC) advocate Adam Back says that the flagship crypto asset can explode to a $200 trillion market cap in the next nine years, meaning a price tag of about $10 million per coin.
In a tweet thread, Back says that based on historical performance, BTC is still on track to continue its trend of rallying an average of 100% per year.
“Early this year I was curious of the claim ‘Bitcoin 2x’s per year on average’. It checks: the decade Jan 2013 – Dec 2022 Bitcoin went up 2.036x/year (1200x in a decade). If that continues we’ll cross $10mil/BTC and $200 trillion market cap by end of next 2 halvenings, about 9 years.
$200 trillion is a [Hal Finney] 2009 Bitcoin market cap prediction number. It’s a LOT, displaces a significant part of the store of value premiums in bonds, real estate monetary premium, gold, 60:40 stock portfolios, etc. some think adoption will slow, derivatives reduce volatility.”
The veteran Bitcoiner and HashCash inventor says that BTC doesn’t necessarily need to see $100 trillion flow into it in order to reach the same market cap, due to illiquid markets and the tendency for Bitcoin investors to long term hold their coins.
“Also bear in mind bitcoin does not have to absorb anywhere near $100 trillion to reach that market cap, due to relative thin trading, and hodl/cold store investors. If Bitcoin really gets moving, it will become harder to get anyone to sell, have to pry it out of their cold wallets.
Given volatility, I think Bitcoin can overshoot wildly and tap one of these $100-300 trillion market caps, correct and then regain a steadier adoption over time. I suspect people with average entry points, relative to then current price won’t have much incentive to sell in size.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $21,521, about a 46,000% rally away from a $200 trillion market cap.
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