Widely followed crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen is identifying a worst-case scenario for the crypto markets as prices spiral downward.
In a new strategy session, Cowen tells his 784,000 YouTube subscribers that the crypto markets could give up hundreds of billions of dollars in a correction similar to the dot-com collapse.
“There are a lot of similarities between the tech stock collapse back in the dot-com era and the crypto collapse that we’re seeing today.”
Cowen looks at the performance of the Nasdaq during the dot-com era and draws parallels to today’s crypto markets. He uses the market rally and decline percentages from the dot-com era to indicate where the total market cap for Bitcoin and other cryptos could be heading.
According to the analyst, the total market cap of all crypto assets may be in a position where it witnesses one more capitulation phase, similar to what happened to the Nasdaq in 2022 when it crashed by about 30% before bottoming out.
“Where would it put [the total crypto market cap] if we went 30% lower below the prior low? It would put the total market cap at around $500 billion, which represents a sizable correction from the current levels. That’s 30% below the prior low. From the current levels, that would represent another 40% to 50% correction. And again, we know that these percentages are subject to slight changes like it’s not going to be exact. So maybe it could be 40% down from here if it’s going to follow it. Or maybe it could be 50% down and get you closer to $400 billion…
I think the worst-case scenario for crypto would be somewhere around a $400 billion to $500 billion market cap for the entire asset class.”
A decline to a $500 billion market cap would evaporate more than $460 billion in cryptocurrencies. The total market cap at time of writing is $966 billion.
Cowen also says that the dot-com crash from its peak occurred over a two-and-a-half-year period when the Nasdaq dropped by a total of 83%. He says a similar fall from the peak of the crypto markets would also bring the total market cap down to the $400 billion to $500 billion range.
The crypto analyst notes that he is identifying a worst-case scenario, and it’s still possible the bottom is already in.
“There’s always a chance that the bottom is in, and that it doesn’t have to play out in the worst-case scenario.”
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