Last week, VanEck released a research report detailing its forecast for the price of Ethereum in 2030.
VanEck based its forecast, which places ETH at $51,000 in its “bull case,” on the thesis that Ethereum becomes widely adopted across numerous business sectors.
“We base these estimates on the thesis that Ethereum becomes the dominant open-source global settlement network that hosts substantial portions of the commercial activity of business sectors with the highest potential to gain from moving their business functions to public blockchains. In a portfolio of similar smart contract platforms, we assume to own a collection of call options, with the dominant platform likely to take a majority market share.”
In an interview with Bankless, Matthew Sigel, the head of VanEck’s digital asset research, says that the same outlook could be used for Solana, but with a higher risk profile.
“In terms of upside, once you layer in our top two assumptions of the penetration rate, and then if you assume that Solana takes 70% of all of open-source blockchain activity, the upside becomes much higher, but with a much higher level of risk as well.
And the other thing that we observed, especially with Solana is that the MEV (miner extracted value) is a much higher percentage of the revenue line, and that leads to issues of centralization. There’s opacity in that chain, a fewer number really active participants extracting value and that just introduces question marks. So even though we have more upside in tokens like ATOM and Solana, it’s smaller position sizes because of the unknowns.”
At time of writing, Solana is trading for $19.86.
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