Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen thinks Ethereum (ETH) has a long way to drop before it surges back up to new all-time highs.
In a new YouTube video, Cowen restates his thesis that ETH will first need to return “home,” a term he uses to describe the asset’s fair-value logarithmic regression trendline.
The analyst tells his 786,000 subscribers that ETH has returned to this trendline “throughout history” prior to taking off on bull runs.
Cowen says the logarithmic regression band is designed to track the fair value of an asset using “non-bubble data.” He notes that the middle part of the band currently sits at $934 and the lower part of the band is at $644.
The analyst also notes that last cycle (in 2020), Ethereum actually went 33% below the regression band. As a result, he thinks an attractive accumulation range for Ethereum will be between $400 and $600.
According to Cowen, it is highly probable that ETH will conclude the year with a lower value than its initial price, following the pattern of 2019 when it began at $1,200.
ETH is trading at $1,635 at time of writing. The second-ranked crypto asset by market cap is down nearly 1.75% in the past 24 hours.
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