Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal says he’s looking at one signal that has preceded massive Bitcoin (BTC) rallies five times in the past.
In a blog post, the macro guru says Bitcoin’s 30-day historical volatility just moved below 20 for the first time since the start of the year.
Pal says hitting the 20 level has historically set the scene for Bitcoin to go on a huge run in the succeeding months.
“After a strong start to the year (60% to 100% rises), the crypto markets have been completely dead over the summer…
This 20-level has always produced huge moves over the subsequent two to four months…
April 2016: +83% in two months
October 2016: +85% in two months
March 2019: +214% in three months
July 2020: +102% in four months
January 2023: +85% in three months.”Â
Pal is also keeping a close watch on the Bollinger Bands, which is a widely used volatility indicator. According to the macro guru, Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands are “currently the tightest on record” as it hovers close to the 20 level as well.
“Only one other month historically have we ever been below 25 which was back in April 2016.
Back then, Bitcoin went on to rally 44x into the 2017 high…”Â
At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $26,127.
Looking at Ethereum (ETH), Pal says that the leading smart contract platform continues to trade within a bullish continuation pattern despite the marketwide correction over the past weeks.
“Additionally, as we highlighted last week, ETH also seems to be forming a large bull flag pattern…”Â
At time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $1,636.
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