Bloomberg analysts say it’s highly likely a Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) will launch by the end of the year, and a near-guarantee by the end of 2024.
According to Bloomberg ETF experts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, there’s a 75% chance that a spot market BTC ETF will launch by the end of 2023 and a 95% chance that one will launch by the end of next year.
Balchunas says that the odds were raised after digital asset manager Grayscale won a lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In the lawsuit, which concluded this week, a federal court unanimously ruled that the SEC must reconsider its rejection of Grayscale’s application to launch a BTC ETF to avoid arbitrariness and caprice.
“James Seyffart and I are upping our odds to 75% of spot Bitcoin ETFs launching this year (95% by the end of ’24). While we factored Grayscale win into our previous 65% odds, the unanimity and decisiveness of [the] ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC with ‘little wiggle room.’”
According to Seyffart, the creation of a spot market ETF based around the top crypto asset by market is basically a “done deal” for 2024.
“A lot of people were asking yesterday. Eric [Balchunas] and I have moved to 75% for the 2023 launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF and we think it’s almost a done deal that we will have one launched by the end of 2024.”
Grayscale originally sued the SEC in June 2022, alleging that the regulatory body’s rejection of their bid to launch a BTC ETF was discriminatory.
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