Bitcoin (BTC) is now checking the three main requirements for another explosive rally to new all-time highs, according to a popular crypto analyst.
Pseudonymous analyst TechDev tells his 418,000 followers on social media platform X that Bitcoin has now hit the “3-prong signal” that previously foreshadowed the other four BTC rallies to new highs.
TechDev places a Bitcoin price chart against three other indicators. The first is his own “global liquidity signal” versus the balance sheets of major central banks. The analyst’s liquidity signal attempts to depict global cycles of dollar liquidity by pitting the dollar index (DXY) against Chinese 10-year bonds (CN10Y).
The other two indicators are the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the monthly vortex, two trend reversal indicators that have both crossed bullish by according to traditional interpretation.
“The 3-prong signal which preceded each of Bitcoin’s four ATH-setting runs:
- Break above 20M MA
- Monthly MACD bull cross
- Monthly Vortex bull cross
…of a global liquidity proxy which oscillates with a ~3.5 year cycle.
And also has a log growth trajectory.”
In a separate post, TechDev shares data from analytics firm Glassnode that appears to suggest that certain on-chain activity is behaving the same as a previous bull run. The Glassnode chart depicts a rise and then plateauing of the amount of BTC laying dormant for more than a year, while the 200-day rate of change of the same metric slowly declines below zero.
As indicated by TechDev’s green circles, the same situation happened in the 2015-2016 market cycle.
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