Castle Island Ventures founding partner and Coin Metrics co-founder Nic Carter is predicting when Bitcoin (BTC) could start soaring again.
In a new Bloomberg Television interview, Carter says he believes Bitcoin will take off in price months after the possible approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) in the US.
“Well, of course, there’s tax selling potentially to end the year here, and we’ve seen the market give up some of those gains in recent days. But just fundamentally it’s about expectations versus catalysts.
And the market at this point thoroughly expects the ETF, and I think the big rally we’ve seen from the $20,000s, low $30,000s into the mid $40,000s for Bitcoin, I think that’s almost entirely ETF based. And so on day of [the potential BTC ETF approval], there might be a bit of a pop, but I think the effect might be muted.
Where I expect to see the price developing, in the medium term that’s where I’m excited. That’s when I think you see RIAs (registered investment advisors) and other kinds of financial entities that previously weren’t able to necessarily recommend Bitcoin to their clients get the ability to do that with the ETFs.
I think we’ll see a marketing rampage from the big ETF sponsor, some of the largest financial institutions in the world, and that’s when I think this thing really takes off as we enter and throughout 2024.”
Carter also says he expects approval of spot BTC ETFs on January 8th, and he believes the ETFs will have a much greater impact on Bitcoin’s value than the April 2024 Bitcoin halving event, when miners’ rewards are cut in half, reducing the new supply of BTC.
“The market is almost certain at this point that we will be getting an ETF in the coming days. Most analysts think it’s likely to come before January 10th. I think it’s likely to come on the eighth. So the near-term price certainly reflects that expectation. So we may even see a new selling event here.
However, over the medium term, the ETF unlocks whole new classes of capital that otherwise wouldn’t be able to enter the market, and that haven’t been able to allocate to Bitcoin. So I think you will see structural flows that will be positive for Bitcoin.
The halving I’m probably less constructive on. I think it makes a very marginal difference. You’re only seeing a small effect on supply in terms of marginal supply creation. So the halving is I would say less of an exciting development.”
Bitcoin is trading for $42,559 at time of writing, down nearly 2% in the last 24 hours.
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