Prominent analytics firm IntoTheBlock says Bitcoin (BTC) has an 85% chance of hitting a fresh all-time high within the next six months.
IntoTheBlock head of research Lucas Outumuro says the forecast is based on five catalysts that could serve as tailwinds for the top crypto asset by market cap in the coming months.
The first one is the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving in April, which will cut BTC miner rewards in half. According to Outumuro, BTC miners are “more prepared than ever” for the reduction of BTC issuance.
“For this reason, as well as the continued specialization in miner equipment, we predict Bitcoin’s all-time high to reach another all-time high just a month after the halving.”
Outumuro also says that the halving will likely lead to reduced selling pressure as BTC’s issuance inflation rate will drop from 1.7% to 0.85% after April.
The second catalyst that could propel BTC to record highs is fresh inflows coming from the recently approved Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to Outumuro, BTC ETFs have amassed about $4 billion in new inflows just a month after their launch.
“This could result in growing demand for Bitcoin, while supply issuance decreases post-halving, resulting in a potentially explosive dynamic for Bitcoin’s price.”
The third tailwind is the anticipation that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates as early as March. According to the researcher, traders are already front-running the Fed’s easing of monetary policy.
“Whether it happens in March or as late as the summer, the forecasted rate cuts are being priced in and leading markets higher. As interest rates begin to decrease, it will become cheaper to borrow, supporting more liquidity into financial markets which ultimately tends to benefit prices of Bitcoin and stocks alike.”
The fourth catalyst is the upcoming US presidential election. Outumuro says the Fed might take steps to make the economy look good ahead of the event.
“With presidential elections coming in November 2024, there is an implicit incentive for the Fed to prop up the economy to increase Biden’s odds of reelection.”
Lastly, Outumuro predicts that companies across the globe will accumulate BTC in the coming months.
“With the spot ETFs now making it easier than ever for Wall Street to access Bitcoin, it is likely that more hedge funds will accumulate Bitcoin in the upcoming quarters…
An increasing amount of companies in Asia and South America have adopted Bitcoin for part of their treasuries. Now that the ETF legitimizes Bitcoin in the US, this pattern may expand nationally.”
You can read the full report here.
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