Trader Says Old Halving-Based Bitcoin Cycles Have Likely Ended, Sees BTC Price Behaviour Drastically Changing

A widely followed crypto investor thinks that Bitcoin’s (BTC) old cyclical pattern based on its four-year halving schedule is no longer valid.

Pseudonymous analyst Jack Sparrow tells his 251,100 followers on the social media platform X that crypto market participants are heavily relying on previous price patterns based on the four-year halving cycle.

According to Jack Sparrow, however, this time around may be different for Bitcoin as he believes that BTC has entered its maturation stage as an asset.

“I think we finished a major behavioral period (inception until now) as the ETFs (exchange-traded funds) came online, Bitcoin maturing as an asset, perhaps even as early as 2018 when CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures came online.

My Gann-based cycles suggest the old behavioral cycle to end in April this year, only slightly after the ETFs launched and closer to the moment in time to have the big old GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) arbitrage unwound entirely.”

As Bitcoin matures as an asset, the analyst highlights that it is “only logical” that BTC’s price action will witness drastic changes when compared to previous cycles.

“The next cycle will be one about viability as a technology, store of value and real-world integration beyond speculation as the battle to make it the default Treasury asset.”

The analyst notes that Bitcoin will likely start to behave much like stocks where deep-pocketed investors instigate market shakeouts in an effort to accumulate cheap coins.

“New cycles start with accumulation. Remember how markets hunt for liquidity to accumulate. Nobody is your friend, they want your coin, if Bitcoin is important enough they will engineer a way to get it.” 

According to the trader, September will be crucial for the crypto king as it will determine whether BTC will witness bullish or bearish price action in the ensuing months.

“September, in my opinion, is the month that solidifies the uptrend or confirms it breaks. It sets the main trend into March to June. 

This aligns with seasonality, cycles AND the cutting cycle being either bullish or bearish. Pivotal.” 

For now, the trader says BTC needs to recover and retest a key level as support.

“$61,000 remains a key level to gain/hold for a continuation higher and likely to be tested again.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $58,490, down over 1% on the day.

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