Closely followed analyst Benjamin Cowen says that Cardano (ADA) is most likely in for one additional drop against Bitcoin (ADA/BTC) before 2024 comes to a close.
Cowen tells his 889,100 followers on the social media platform X that historically, ADA has oscillated against BTC roughly between 400 and 4,000 satoshis (sats), while making final declines at the end of the halving year.
Cowen points out that coinciding with the four-year ADA/BTC pattern is the fact that monetary policy is still relatively restrictive and that the US dollar is in the middle of a rally – two typically bearish conditions for risk assets like crypto.
“I think ADA/BTC will get one more drop before EOY (end of year) and then go up in 2025.
Showing some stats for comparison…
Nov 2020 low: 583 sats
Nov 2020 high: 995 sats
Dec 2020 low: 503 sats
Nov 2024 low: 470 sats
Nov 2024 high: 903 sats (so far)
Dec 2024 low: ???
If QT (quantitative tightening) were over I would be more inclined to say it does not have to drop again (since BTC dominance already hit 60% and ADA/BTC went to 470 sats (and my multi-year target was 400 sats).
But with QT continuing and DXY (US dollar index) rallying, I don’t think we can dismiss another drop by ADA/BTC before EOY.“
Cowen has the same general view on altcoins at large. He shares a chart that looks at the TOTAL3-USDT chart, which measures the total market cap of crypto excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and stablecoins.
The analyst notes that TOTAL3-USDT versus Bitcoin is struggling to breach a level reached in late 2020, suggesting that altcoins could still get much weaker.
“Imagine now being able to say that BTC dominance (BTC.D) dropped to 60%.
I am open-minded to the top for dominance being in, but my main concern for that view is that ALT/BTC pairs are still well off their historic lows.
Additionally, QT continues, DXY and yields are going up, and BTC.D historically goes up in December of halving years.”
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